No Significant Rainfall Expected in India Over Next 4-5 Days, Says IMD

The IMD has forecast a dry spell across India for the next 4-5 days, with monsoon withdrawal expected in northwest India by September 22. However, cyclonic activity could bring rainfall to central and eastern regions, delaying the withdrawal. India has recorded 7% excess rainfall since June.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on September 19, 2024, that no significant rainfall is expected across the country for the next four to five days. This comes ahead of the anticipated monsoon withdrawal from parts of northwest India, projected to begin around September 22, as per last week's forecast.

Despite the current dry spell, the IMD's extended range model suggests rainfall activity between September 26 and October 10. Notably, the country has recorded 7% excess rainfall since June 1, though there are regional disparities, with central and peninsular India receiving 18% and 17% more rainfall, respectively, while East and Northeast India faced a 14% deficiency.

Mahesh Palawat, vice president of Skymet Weather, highlighted that while the wind direction may shift to westerly soon, rainfall might persist in some regions due to a developing cyclonic circulation over East India. This system could impact states like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, potentially delaying the monsoon withdrawal.

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Historically, the monsoon begins its withdrawal from northwest India around mid-September, with full retreat by mid-October. In 2023, the withdrawal commenced on September 25. However, premature declarations by the IMD, as seen in 2022, have led to continued rainfall despite official withdrawal announcements.