Far-Right Is Expected to Fall Short of Absolute Majority in the Parliament in France

French far-right National Rally party is predicted to win the most seats in upcoming parliamentary elections but fall short of an absolute majority. Recent polls show a decline in projected seats, likely due to the "republican front" strategy of rival parties.

According to recent polls, the far-right National Rally (RN) party in France, which is led by Marine Le Pen, the most likely winner of the most seats in the second round of parliamentary elections next month will not manage to receive an absolute majority.

The latest IFOP poll sponsored by LCI and Le Figaro released on Thursday predicts the RN to get anywhere from 210 to 240 districts in the 577-seat National Assembly. It indicates a dip from the earlier prediction of 240-270 seats which could be because of the successful deployment of the "republican front" strategy.

The "republican front" method is viable since representatives from different ends of the ideological spectrum abandon the three-way races to create a united front behind the best possible candidate to win the RN in the respective constituencies. This strategic move is obviously beneficial for the party standing too far right.

According to the IFOP, the NPF “New Popular Front” is slated to place second with around 170-200 seats. In the meantime, Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Together alliance is expected to occupy 95-125 seats and the conservatives are expected to occupy 25-45 seats.

These results also match the Wednesday Harris Interactive poll numbers which show RN getting 190 to 220 seats. Both poll results demonstrate that even though RN may be the most numerous party, it will still be short of the 289 seats required to get an absolute majority.

France’s second set of parliamentary elections is to be held this Sunday, July 7. It is pertinent to note that the parliament’s balance of forces will be turned through the election and significantly stake out the political terrain for Macron’s new term.

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The common concern of political analysts is about the performance of the RN, amongst other things, if the "republican front" remains effective and the possibility that the last-minute endorsement of a candidate can influence the projections and one's fate.