Sri Lanka's Presidential Election 2024: Key Candidates and Implications for India

As Sri Lanka prepares for its first presidential election post-economic collapse, candidates Ranil Wickremesinghe, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, and Sajith Premadasa are vying for the presidency. The election's outcome is significant for India, particularly in the context of the Tamil minority's concerns and China's expanding influence in the region.

Sri Lanka is set to vote for a new president on September 21, marking its first election since the economic collapse in 2022. With 38 candidates vying for the presidency, this election holds significant implications for India, particularly amid the growing influence of China in the region. Polls will open at 7 AM and close at 4 PM local time, with results expected on Sunday. Approximately 17 million out of 22 million eligible voters will cast ballots for the country’s 10th president, focusing on pressing economic issues such as inflation, social welfare, and shortages of food and fuel.

The key candidates include incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe, who succeeded former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa amid widespread protests against the economic crisis. Wickremesinghe, 75, is a seasoned politician, having served as prime minister six times and playing a key role in negotiating an IMF bailout for Sri Lanka. Another significant contender is Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who is leading in opinion polls.

As the head of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a party known for its past Marxist uprisings, Dissanayake's position on war crime investigations against the Tamil minority may impact his electoral support. Sajith Premadasa, the head of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, is also a major candidate, campaigning on wealth redistribution to alleviate poverty after narrowly losing the 2019 election.

The aftermath of the 2022 economic crisis has left Sri Lanka grappling with a poverty rate that doubled to 25%. Challenges such as high inflation, increased taxation, and the devaluation of currency continue to plague the nation. Wickremesinghe has faced backlash for raising taxes while also rolling back social welfare programs, exacerbating public discontent. The election's outcomes are crucial for India, which shares historical ties with Sri Lanka's Tamil minority community, particularly in Tamil Nadu.

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Concerns about the dominance of Sinhalese candidates persist, as many Tamils feel disenfranchised. Furthermore, India's strategic interests are at stake due to China's increasing influence in Sri Lanka, including significant investments and control over vital ports. The Adani Group's involvement in the expansion of Colombo's West International Terminal and Sri Lanka's long-term lease of Hambantota to China highlight the growing dependence on Chinese financial support. Between 2006 and 2022, Sri Lanka received $11.2 billion from China in loans and grants, raising alarms in New Delhi.

In this context, candidates like Sajith Premadasa, who have criticized Chinese involvement, may resonate more with Indian interests, making the election's results pivotal for regional dynamics.