Haryana Elections: Why Congress Struggled Despite Anti-Incumbency

The Congress struggled in the Haryana elections despite anti-incumbency against the BJP. Heavy reliance on Bhupinder Singh Hooda, internal conflicts, and failure to consolidate non-Jat votes contributed to Congress' underperformance. Meanwhile, the BJP’s OBC-focused strategy and its cleaner governance record helped it maintain a strong lead in key regions.

In the early trends of the Haryana assembly elections, the BJP is leading with 47 seats compared to the Congress’ 36, despite the Congress having a slightly higher vote share—40.57% to BJP’s 38.80%. The Congress' performance has fallen short of expectations, particularly given the widespread belief in an anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP.

A major reason for Congress’ underperformance seems to be its heavy reliance on Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the former Haryana chief minister. The party expected to win by consolidating Jat, Dalit, and Muslim votes, but it miscalculated. The BJP was able to solidify its non-Jat and non-Muslim voter base, especially focusing on non-Jat other backward classes (OBC) voters. This strategy helped the BJP retain its dominance in non-Jat regions of eastern and southern Haryana, while also performing well in the Jat-dominated western parts of the state.

Internal conflicts within Congress, particularly between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja, further weakened its campaign. Infighting and the presence of rebel candidates running as independents contributed to Congress' lack of unity, unlike the BJP's more cohesive approach.

Another key factor is that Hooda’s past tenure as chief minister (2004–2014) left a negative impression among non-Jat voters, with accusations of corruption and poor governance. The BJP, in contrast, maintained a cleaner image over the past decade in power. Political analysts noted that there were no major corruption charges against BJP leaders during this period.

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The BJP’s decision to replace former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with OBC leader Nayab Singh Saini in March 2024 seems to have paid off, mirroring a similar strategy in Uttarakhand in 2022, where the BJP outperformed Congress by banking on a younger leader. In both cases, Congress’ reliance on its old guard, such as Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Harish Rawat, did not resonate with voters.